← Gaia GA PTM Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Gaia GA PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.7% | +5.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torpid Fractal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perfect Repulsion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Return to the Archive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |